Popocatepetl (Mexico): Recorded Eruptions and Historical Activity

Popocatepetl is a stratovolcano located in Mexico, sitting within a subduction zone and continental crust tectonic setting at an elevation of 5,393 meters. According to official records from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, the volcano has a confirmed total of 41 eruptions spanning from its earliest recorded activity in the 8th millennium BCE through the 21st century CE.

Eruption History and Chronology

The confirmed eruption record for Popocatepetl captures both prehistoric activity determined through isotopic dating methods and historical activity documented through human observations. The earliest recorded event in the collection dates back to 7150 BCE (with an uncalibrated 14C isotopic evidence method and a start year modifier of ‘?'), carrying a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4.0 at Volcán El Fraile. Another significant prehistoric event occurred around 200 BCE, carrying an estimated VEI of 5.0—the largest recorded VEI in the volcano's official profile.

Historical observation records begin to appear in later centuries. For instance, an eruption was recorded in 1354 with a VEI of 2.0, followed by subsequent reported events such as an eruption in 1548 with a VEI of 2.0. The structured record includes 37 eruptions with assigned VEI observations, reaching up to an eruption starting on January 9, 2005, and ending on March 18, 2026, with a VEI of 2.0.

Distribution of Eruptions by Century

Activity at Popocatepetl has been documented across multiple centuries, varying from prehistoric gaps to denser clusters in historical eras. The recorded eruption count by century includes:

• 52nd century BCE: 1 eruption
• 37th century BCE: 1 eruption
• 24th century BCE: 1 eruption
• 19th century BCE: 1 eruption
• 72nd century BCE: 1 eruption
• 63rd century BCE: 1 eruption
• 2nd century BCE: 1 eruption
• 3rd century CE: 1 eruption
• 9th century CE: 1 eruption
• 14th century CE: 2 eruptions
• 15th century CE: 1 eruption
• 16th century CE: 13 eruptions
• 17th century CE: 4 eruptions
• 18th century CE: 1 eruption
• 19th century CE: 1 eruption
• 20th century CE: 8 eruptions
• 21st century CE: 2 eruptions

Understanding the Record and VEI

The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) provides a relative scale to assess the size of explosive volcanic eruptions based on factors such as volume of products ejected. At Popocatepetl, recorded VEI values range up to 5.0. Evidence methods transition from uncalibrated radiocarbon (14C) dating for ancient geological layers to direct human reports for historical and modern events. The complete official dataset documents 41 confirmed eruptions out of a broader tracking environment, reflecting both ancient prehistoric intervals and documented historical observations.